This Week in Tech 595
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Leo Laporte: This is TWiT, This Week in Tech, episode 595, For January 1, New Year's Day, 2017.
What a Year it Was!
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Hello everybody! Welcome to This Week in Tech. It's a special This Week in Tech. I decided to give the team a week off. It's New Year's Day. Fortunately, there's a lot of good stuff we've done over the past year. We thought it would be fun, as we've done in years past, to do a "best of." Let's see what we've put together for you today. Kicking it off, Ohdoctah, who is always a fun and wonderful guest on the show. You probably remember back in November, he was a little P'd off, shall we say? About Apple's MacBook Pros.
TWiT 589: "Save it For Saint Patrick's Day"
Leo: It's in the other room. The New Apple MacBook, we did an interview yesterday on the new screensavers We did an interview yesterday on the new Screensavers with Kyle Wiens, he's at ifixit.com and as you know, iFixit does tear downs of all the new stuff whenever it comes out, they did a tear down on the new MacBook. It's part of their mission which is to make repair manuals and tools, and parts available for everything. So one of the things they do when they do a tear down is they rate these things on how easily you can repair them. The new MacBook got a repair factor of one, repairability of one out of ten. The lowest, I said, Could you go lower, he said I guess you could get a zero.
Baratunde Thurston: Could you not in fact see that as the best? Like it's number one?
Leo: Ha. That's what Tim Cook says. It's a beautiful thing, but in their haste to make thinner lighter notebooks, what Apple has really done is make notebooks that aren't upgradable. It's a big iPhone. It's exactly the model, even down to the point where not only is the battery non removable, it's almost impossible to get them out. They have infinite patience. This is the thing that also bugs me. Not recyclable. He says we hear from recyclers all the time who have fires from lithium ion batteries. They're either left in by accident or we didn't find it. When they grind it up, as with any lithium ion battery it explodes and bursts into flames, and it's a real problem for recyclers to the point where this is going in the landfill. This is not going to be recycled.
Baratunde: I remember years ago Apple getting criticized for burning down the Earth and being bad citizens of the world, but they came back and but we do this and our new building is going to be lead certified, it's a spaceship it can take us to Mars if the Earth melts down...
Leo: They're a member of EP. Their stuff is EP certified. I have to think it has to do with the millions of dollars they gave EP, more than the sustainability of electronics. Here's what I'm going to propose. By the way, it's not just Apple, it's everybody. This is the Google Pixel. Sealed battery. It might be possible to take the battery out and take it apart, I don't know. But I think the drive towards thinner electronics is driving us towards sealed cases and batteries. Remember the days when you could take the back off a phone and replace the battery? Or pop the battery out from the laptop and put a new one in? The battery goes bad in a few years anyway. They're essentially making disposable electronics, and this is an awful big chunk of disposable electronics.
Georgia Dow: Are you sure Liam can't take the battery out yet?
Leo: Liam cannot take the battery out! And by the way, I asked.
Baratunde: Liam has a very particular set of skills.
Georgia: Liam is not ready for Westworld yet.
Leo: I asked Kyle doesn't Apple recycle these? Because you're supposed to bring your old stuff back to Apple. He said I know the recycler that Apple uses, and no. Here's the issue, going forward we as consumers for our own benefit because replacing batteries are good for us it keeps electronics lasting longer, if you have a cellphone with a replaceable battery, you could put a second battery in, shouldn't we start demanding not thinner and lighter but removable batteries and recycling?
Owen J.J. Stone: First of all I hate this new laptop. I hate this new direction that Apple is going into. They're not going into the pro series where people create content, now they want you to consumer content. So first of all. I'm going to go and I'm going to stop. You make a laptop with only C ports in it and you put a headphone jack in it, after you told me you were magically getting rid of my headphone jack that I'm trying to put in this iPhone 7 plus repeatedly? Why is it in that and you can't have a way for me to plug my phone into my laptop and charge it when I'm on the go and I got stuff to do? Instead now I have to pull out this dongle and look like a doofus, but you couldn't put an SD card in it because you told me aerodynamics... everything is wrong with this thing! I'm not done. Did you see the stupid scroll bar? Any professional knows how to use the function keys to get around these pro tools that they're using. I never miss Steve Jobs. He's a man I never met, I don't need him; but I miss him! So much because it's so ridiculous the stupid stuff they're doing. If you wanted my Grandma to have a Mac Pro, maybe you shouldn't charge $3000 for it you stupid. I don't need it. It makes me so mad and I need a new computer and I have to go back to Microsoft!
Leo: Can I tell you something...?
Owen: Where is Apple's innovation? They don't got no courage. I'm going to stop yelling becuase people get mad when i yell on this show.
Baratunde: Leo, we need a moment of silence to appreciate the Bill Cosby mixed with Homer simpson rant that we just heard. That was the most beautiful thing we've heard on this show in years. Ohdoctah, I want to find you and hug you, but I know... That was amazing.
Owen: It hurts my heart I need to spend 3Gs on a laptop and I can't bring myself to do it. I can't do it right now because I'm so upset. I don't want to go back to MIcrosoft. I dumped her a long time ago. But now she put on a cute dress and dropped 50 pounds.
Baratunde: I have no words.
TWiT 547: "Alexa, Rent me a Monk"
Leo: Amazon's rent-a-Buddhist-monk service causes controversy in Japan (laughing).
Alex Wilhelm: Is that an actual headline?
Leo: Yea. Welcome to Yacheyo, ladies and gentlemen. No, it's a real story because apparently it's very expensive to get a Buddhist monk for your memorial service. Monk delivery service from a temple is about $830. A funeral could be as much as $8,500 dollars. So Amazon has jumped in to this market with cut rate Buddhist monks.
Alex: Is this monks as a service?
Leo: the name of the service is Mr. Monk Delivery.
Alex: Mr. Monk Delivery.
Leo: Oboson bin.
Alex: Is there a Mrs. Monk Delivery?
Leo: No, there are no Mrs. Monks.
Leo: Apparently this is a big money maker for Japanese Buddhist temples.
Jason Calacanis: Yea, they give a lower price.
Leo: The Japanese Buddhist Association is up in arms.
Jason: Yea but you know what?
Christina Warren: As they should be. This is terrible.
Leo: It's just acceptance. Acceptance. The Amazon service is a mere $300.
Jason: Yea, but you know what? They're going even lower with the Amazon Basic Monk which are like— it's just like the Amazon cable. It's the same as the lightning cable from Apple Stores it's just like half, a third of the price.
Alex: Then there's the gold plated monster service that costs 10 trillion dollars.
Christina: Either way—
Leo: Oh, that's what we need. Is the Amazon Dash button for monks.
Jason: Order a monk.
Alex: At some point in time there's like 8 people outside like, "You called?" And we're going to be like, "Crap. Leo, get your credit card out.
Leo: By the way about a hundred people listening right now just has their –
Jason: It set a timer for 5 minutes.
Leo: Stop it.
Alex: Buy more socks.
Leo: You know how annoying that is? Oh, that's really bad.
Jason: It's like Barry Manilow.
Leo: Oh, you are dying— Ok, we're going to bleep this whole damn segment (laughing). Can you just, Christina, get these boys out of here.
Jason: Tell us a joke.
Alex: Leo's hair color.
Jason: No, no. If you do tell me a joke, it does it.
Leo: It will also do other stuff like you can say fart. You have to turn it on. But it's one of the skills, there's a section that's called skills
Alex: So you say turn on fart and then it farts?
Leo: Something like that, yea.
Jason: My favorite is switch accounts. So you can put two accounts in.
Leo: I use it for Audible. Because my wife has her Audible books and I have mine.
Jason: That's exactly why I did it.
Leo: And so we swap accounts and when I want to read my book and when she wants to read her book.
Jason: My daughter goes, "Play rock and roll music that will make Daddy angry." And I'm like—
Leo: Does it work?
Jason: What are you talking about? There's no rock and roll that will make me angry. Maybe like some smooth jazz or something. That will make me angry.
Leo: This is why kids today have such a problem. Because their parents, they love all the stuff. You want to die your hair purple and make a Mohawk. Go for it. That's wonderful.
Jason: Play Rick Astley's Never Going to Give You Up. I'm going from the chatroom. Shout out to TheGeek007.
Leo: I just Rick rolled everybody who listens to the show.
Jason: It is the greatest device ever.
Christina: It is. It's one of my favorite gadgets.
Jason: My favorite device. I think it's the best device they ever made.
TWiT 558, "Rattlesnake in a Pinata"
Ben Thompson: I think the trouble is when the Government breaks a lock and they're doing it in the physical world, that is one lock. They're constrained by, even if you want an example of a golden key. The TSA luggage brew ha ha. Now luggage has to have a TSA approved lock, which can be unlocked by a particular set of keys which only the TSA has. Then someone took a picture of it and put it on Twitter, and now you can 3D print the key that can unlock all the luggage in the world. It's a great example of the problem with golden keys that they do leak, and now every single luggage lock in the world was weakened immediately. All at the same time. The difference is you still have to get the key and go to every piece of luggage and unlock it one by one. There's a physical constraint on what can be done with a golden key. The danger with a digital golden key, the only way you can fulfill this law is that Apple or Google or WhatsApp or Amazon, this applies to every single company that deals with the Internet period. Every single company has to retain a key that can undo their encryption. The difference is when that key leaks, these things do leak, what happens if this key leaks? Not only is every piece of software in every service and everything that touches immediately vulnerable, but it's vulnerable in a way that can be taken advantage of immediately and at scale because that's how digital works. Some bad guy in some Eastern European company like Russia or China or whoever can immediately compromise and take advantage of that weakness in a matter of minutes. That's different than having to go to every piece of luggage in an airport and unlock them one by one. The degree of risk is massively greater and put that in an equation, who has the most to lose? Who has the most to keep secure? If you did a census of every single company in the world, who has the most to lose? If you put this in a ledger and weigh it out and balance it out, it comes out that the United States has the most to lose of every single country in the world. Instituting an environment where you're security rests on hoping stuff doesn't leak or get out, the history of everything shows never persists and over the ark of time, will get out. that's what happens. That's why you design security for the worst case. You don't design it for the best case, so when and if that happens, who will be decimated? It will be us. It will be the US. That's the argument that we need to win on. Not calling them idiots even though they are.
Iain Thomsom: It is tremendously satisfying to call these people wankers, but it doesn't advance the conversation in any way shape or form.
Leo: You baited him into it. You made him. I would love to ask Senator Feinstein what's your thinking here? These two are members of the intelligence committee. Maybe they know something. Maybe, they probably do have a good reason to be very worried and you really need to do something about this.
Iain: I'm sure they're being told by the Intelligence agencies that they are going dark. We seem to forget that before Smart Phones we did have a good record of catching criminals... We've had encryption for decades and we're still catching criminals, there are still stupid people out there. It's that mindset that this will make law enforcement's life easier, therefore we should do it and ignore the consequences. As you say, the consequences are huge if the Government's OPM department can't keep its finger prints and security clearances safe. If Microsoft could lose its source code, if Google could suffer outages, there is no way to keep us safe. If you're going to introduce a deliberate flaw into the encryption, China, Russia, malware people will do a Manhattan project to find out what it is and to exploit it.
Ben: Just to be clear, you can design a golden key that cannot be discovered. The problem is the golden key will be discovered.
TWiT 577, "Vulnerable to Ninjas"
Leo: Well it's also easier. I don't have to remember 5 kinds of syntax. Actually that is one thing Google mentioned that I think is terrible. You know they got their own now Amazon Echo clone that will be out, the Google Allo someday in the not too distant future.
Harry McCracken: Google Home.
Leo: Home, rather. Allo, Home. And one of the things—it was something somebody said. I think it was Google. "I envision a day where you have a bunch of these on your mantle and you're talking to all of them." No, that is not the day I envision. I don't want that. I want one thing. I talk to that one thing; it talks to everything else. That's what we want. I want Scarlett Johansson in her.
Jason Snell: The other problem with the Allo idea is that you're inserting an agent into one on one conversations. That was one of their demos where you're like, "Hey" to your significant other—
Leo: It would answer for you.
Jason: Or you would bring it in to schedule your dinner reservations or something and I saw that and I thought, "No, no, no, no, no. When I have a conversation with one other person I do not want a bot in between us."
Leo: It may be—wait a minute though. Maybe there's people that bug you and you can just say, "Ok, Allo, handle that."
Jason: Talk to the bot.
Leo: Don't even tell him. Just say, "Allo, handle this." Because you know Inbox has this great auto-answer thing. I've been using that more and more. It looks at the email. It learns how you respond to things and it's uncanny. It comes up with responses I actually use almost all the time. Well, a lot of times I'll write more but if Allo's like that? I can only imagine my wife and I start a discussion and then it ends up Allo's talking to itself.
Jason: Where did this new calendar thing come from?
Leo: Honey, are you still talking to me on that? No, I'm not. I'm not either. What are they saying? They're having a conversation. I think they like each other.
Jason: Google thinks we should go out to dinner tonight.
Leo: (Laughing) Yea, magic calendar. I've scheduled something for you. I'm telling you, Skynet. It's coming. Facebook of course working on AI as well. I think Facebook and Google do have an advantage in that we already given them so much of our personal information that they at least know my name you know. Siri is a little at a disadvantage there. Facebook is starting to do digital visual artificial intelligence. And both Facebook and Google have open sourced a lot of the code that they're using hoping that others will work with their code and start improving it. This is kind of the benefit of open source. The disadvantage is you're giving away company secrets, advantages if you've got cool stuff like TensorFlow from Google. People will start using that. And then we'll all benefit. Worried about Skynet? Are we getting closer?
Jason: When you said there was nothing going on, this is the stuff that's going on.
Leo: See? But Harry said it was AI and I think you're right. I think—but both of you are right. It's not right now. Except that this could be the iPhone in 2007.
Jason: We're going to keep using it and we'll complain about it and we won't even notice how much better it gets because it's still not quite good enough. And then one day, it will be—we will just wake up and be like, "Oh, it's good enough now." Or the world will end and it will be Skynet. One of those.
Leo: Allo will have incognito chats. It will have—everybody does this now—expiring messages. Everybody's also doing encryption, a point-to-point encryption. In Allo's case as well as Facebook's you'll have to opt into it. It's not a default. Apple's is default.
Jason: Yea, that's the thing that the security people dinged Allo for is you have to go in to secret mode as opposed to just having everything being there.
Leo: At least you have a secret mode.
Jason: Oh it's good that they got one. It's just by default it's not secret. And that's because Google wants to be able to do its thing and process what you're saying and come in with a bot to help you out.
Leo: Unlike Apple they're going to use a well-known open source solution, the Signal protocol which has been vetted and tested. It won't have the problem Messages has. Unique keys for every participant. Of course your assistant won't work anymore now because you're encrypted but you know, that's it. That's the trade-off.
Jason: And that's why it's not on by default.
Leo: Right. I completely think that's fine. Because most of the conversations you have in Messaging do not need to be secret. Honey, what's for dinner?
Jason: It's a secret.
Jason: Why are you trying to find out what my dinner is?
Jason: No, I think the idea there is that out of habit you always do your things unencrypted and therefore—there's always been that argument, right? Back in the days of everybody doing PGP email that you should encrypt everything. Or https instead of http on the web. If you encrypt everything—
Leo: Everybody's happy.
Jason: Then everybody's happy.
Leo: And there's not a red flag to the NSA saying that you must be up to no good because you just turned on encryption. Yea, I use PGP. I sign everything. And if somebody sends me their keys then by default our conversation will be encrypted, thereby making sure that every conversation will be in the NSA database. I don't—you know what? Who cares? Because it's just a dopey a conversation under the encryption as it would be if it were unencrypted.
Leo: One of the tough things for us to deal with on TWit this year was politics. We aren't a political show, we're a technology show, but there has been an all year long intersection of tech and politics. This was shortly after the election. We had Lauren Hockenson and Alex Wilhelm on, along with Mike Elgan. Frankly, I had just had enough. This was my response to Trump's latest Tweet. Watch.
TWiT 588: "New Phone, Who dis?"
Lauren Hockenson: This dovetails into the fact that all of this, especially in relation to the way that tech companies are seen, especially the Internet as a common carrier could be radically effected in the next four years.
Alex Wilhelm: Are you talking about net neutrality?
Leo: Stop. This is a second conversation we can't have is what will Trump administration look like in Tech. My reluctance to get into that is it's an unknown. We can say what he said in the campaign, I think he's already back pedaling on some things. Many cases, he's said inconsistent things about a lot of things. I'm not sure what his policy is because it's not written on his website and his public statements have been inconsistent. The guy was a Democrat three years ago. We don't know what is going to happen. Of course one hopes that the most misogynistic, racist things he said and encouraged were inappropriate rhetoric that he will abandon. but we don't know. What I would like to do is to defer judgment until such time until he says what his policy is.
Alex: I think that's reasonable...
Leo: It gets people jinned up over something that hasn't happened yet.
Alex: Can we frame it like this then. Given that Trump is now the head of the GOP, he is their leader.
Leo: I would argue... I don't know what the GOP is any more. He's the President elect. It's not a parliamentary system where the head of the party is now the prime minister. I think you're right, I think this is a new era.
Alex: All I'm trying to say is...
Leo: I think it's likely mainstream Republicans will reject what he does in office.
Alex: That's a possibility. But I do think the policy things that have been on the books that the GOP dictates for a long time, he looked at them as a preamble to what he may do.
Leo: I think that's too far. It's a complete mystery. I can guarantee you the Republican establishment is going what is he going to do?
Alex: There was a story that came out two days ago reporting on the first meeting between technology and business leaders in the tech sector and the Trump transition team and they discuss how they approach policy and the Trump administration is that close enough to being accurate to talk about?
Leo: No. That's a discussion. I would like to see actual actions. Believe me, I'll take to the streets, I don't have a problem protesting actual actions. I have a problem protesting something that hasn't happened.
Alex: I think Ejit PIe is next in line to be chairman of the SCC.
Leo: Probably doesn't matter. We don't know. Wait until that happens, will you?
Alex: No. I want to gear up now. You're 59!
Lauren: Can I take a crack at this? I think this is something we can discuss, which is the idea that... Trump has gone on record to say he opposes the FCC's open Internet order. This is something he has said.
Leo: He said it in a Tweet. He compared it to the equal FCC rule for equal media acts. That was in a Tweet two years ago. I don't know if he still thinks that, I think debating Donald Trump's tweet is an exercise in futility.
Lauren: What I was going to say is however, he seems to also feel sympathetic towards net neutrality in the sense that his interpretation of the Open Internet order was a knock against anti net neutrality.
Leo: He's also said he wants to end the Time Warner acquisition by AT&T. So... What do we got? We don't know. Let's wait and see.
Alex: I'll bet you.
Leo: You can't debate something he might do. There's nothing to debate. It would be a good thing if he stopped AT&T/Time warner. It would be a bad thing if he pointed somebody at the FCC who would overturn net neutrality. But we don't know.
Mike Elgan: This is a complete shift. I hope you don't mind. In 2008, I wrote a column that I had come to the conclusion that social media determines elections. At that time President Obama was running for Office, I said he's got more juice on social media, he won. Every major election since then, I've looked at social media followers and engagement, and in 100% of the cases, in major elections, whoever has the most juice on social media wins. Clearly this one wasn't even close.
Leo: Donald Trump is a master of media.
Mike: Here's the question. Is success on social media how you get elected?
Leo: It's simplistic to say it's that thing. He was also very good at getting mainstream media to cover him because he was so good for ratings. They got billions of dollars in free television coverage. I don't think we should over simplify. It's all Comey's fault ,it's all Bernie's fault. It's a lot of things. I don't know if we'll ever know what was the reason. It could be that Hillary Clinton was just not likable enough. It could be we've had 8 years of a Democrat, it's time for a Republican. Which, by the way, happens with regularity.
Alex: We can agree that CNN shouldn't have played so many Trump rallies in prime time unencumbered by commercials.
Leo: Certainly helped.
Alex: Zucker's only contrition following the election was that.
Leo: Les Moonves says it may not be good for America, but it's damn good for CBS.
Alex: I should buy some stock.
TWiT 590: "The Lady in the Canister"
Leo: Did you read about the new Uber? I guess this is in New York, mostly... what is it called? Is it Juno? You're going to New York. There's a good New Yorker article about them. Baratunde told me about them. He says I don't use Uber anymore because it's exploitative. I want to use Juno now. Juno is started by the guys who started... they sold Viber. They started Viber for 900 million dollars. So founder Tomen Marco, he thought I could sit around and enjoy life or take some money and start another company. He looked around and said we could do what Uber is doing better. If your Uber score, your rating on Uber is over 4.7 out of 5 stars, you can apply to drive for Juno. In other words if you're one of the best, they'll steal you away. Many drivers do both. Uber takes 5 to 25% commission. Juno takes 10%. What's happening with a lot of Uber drives are getting squeezed. It started out great then Uber takes more and more. I took an Uber the other day, we were in Florida. I tried to give the guy a tip, and he said the company doesn't let me take tips. I said my friend, you are so wrong. They pretend that you're getting tipped. I always assumed they were tipping the driver, and they told the drivers, you may not ask for a tip until the drivers sued and won. Now Uber drivers can ask for tips, I told him not only are you allowed to take tips, you can ask for tips. Don't believe what the Uber guys are telling you.
Iain: Uber has a long record of treating their drivers terribly. They're on the record saying they're hanging around until the automated car comes out and then they're going to dump all these drivers. It's not a company I choose...
Larry Magid: This allows you to tip in the app, and what I like about it is I'll tip when I get out of the car, when I'm at the end of a ride, I can get out of the car and leave. I don't have to fiddle with my wallet. I do feel bad because I like to tip if I get a good service. Lyft lets you do that at any point after the ride is over.
Leo: I felt guilty because I never tipped Uber drivers, assuming I didn't have to.
Jason: One of the reasons I really like Uber is I don't need to worry about having cash for a tip.
Leo: ever since that court case, I now automatically tip. I carry cash. Larry, when you're in the big Apple, try Juno.
Larry: tomorrow morning I have a 6AM flight, and I don't trust Uber or Lyft to have a driver in my neighborhood pick me up at 4:30, so Lyft now lets you schedule. I had a Lyft reserved. I'm paying a little extra for that, but it's a relief to know that a driver will be there at 4:30 in the morning. I don't have to worry about it.
Leo: It is nerve racking , isn't it, to say I'm going to press a button and maybe or maybe not a guy will come. You don't want to miss that flight.
Larry: Nobody in their right mind would be driving at that time.
Leo: that's the thing. Even with Juno and Lyft, I worry about in a few years, it's clear that all of these companies want to be autonomous. These jobs are not going to exist in five years.
Jason: Then you'll pay for the human touch. It'll be an extra fancy... it will push the bottom 90% of drivers out of the market. Eventually.
Iain: Considering that driving is... I think 3.5 million Americans are now professional drivers?
Leo: That's a huge number.
Jason: Truck drivers are going to be impacted by it. That's one of the areas that's going to be impacted sooner, because it's so much more efficient to not have human beings who have to do things like sleep and eat.
Leo: We saw it a few weeks ago. Otto, which is an Uber company, delivering 75 cases of beer...?
Jason: You want the beer in the robot truck to be something you can lose...
Leo: I wasn't going to get into this today, because this is a deep and difficult to understand, but it is very clear that income inequality is a growing problem. That's clear, right? Jobs are going away. Even if you are able to get carrier air conditioner to stay in the United States, it seems highly unlikely that industrial jobs that have been lost will come back at any point. You can talk about, and some do, retraining, teaching people to have skills that are more in need, but it's very clear with the advance of machine learning, AI, that we're rapidly getting to a situation where even jobs like mine, one would assume requires human skills won't be available in the years to come. That leaves a very interesting question. There's an article this week in The Atlantic. A World Without Work. This is Derick Thompson writing. This is an issue that a lot of people are starting to think about. I apologize, this is a year-old.
Jason: Our economy in some ways has never been more efficient, but it comes, it's employing fewer people. That's the challenge. If you lose another one percent of the work force, are they going to outlaw robot trucks?
Larry: I think Donald Trump will eventually fulfill his campaign promise of bringing Industry back the United States. So yes, Apple will start making devices in the US.
Leo: They'll be built with robots. Even Foxconn in China has replaced 30,000 people with robots!
Larry: Especially if energy continues to be cheap, why not put a plant in the middle of the United States closer to the consumer?
Leo: There's interesting economic reasons from China for Apple to manufacture in China. It's closer to the sources and the suppliers of the pieces. It's much easier and cheaper to assemble in China. It's not about labor. The labor edition, the cost of labor would change five dollars between making it here and in China. It's not about labor costs. It's about access to suppliers and raw materials.
Jason: And what you get from the supply chain moment by moment so you can minimize your inventory and all those things Tim Cook for example made his thing.
Leo: That's what he does. I think that we will probably be able to reverse some of this, but the long-term trend is clear. Jobs are not going to exist in China. It's not that these jobs are fleeing to china, they are going to disappear thanks to machine learning AI. That's what this article says. The thing that this article wants you to think about is do we even need to work? It's psychologically difficult. Historically we associate what we are with what we do. Without my work I don't know who I am. So psychologically Mark Andreeson has addressed this. He's a billionaire. He says you don't have to worry about income inequality, you don't have to worry about job loss, because there will be such a surplus thanks to automation and machine learning that there will be enough to go around and you won't need to work. We'll all have a basic income. There are problems with basic income.
Iain: Huge problems.
Leo: Chief of which is it replaces other entitlements like medical insurance that won't be covered in the long-run by basic income. But let's assume we can fix that discontinuity. If there is a surplus, maybe in the future we won't need to have jobs, but we'll have to psychologically adjust who we are.
Jason: If you've seen the Sci-Fi series, the Expanse, they mention that from time to time, it's part of the Universe there, the Earth is a basic income at that point. You don't have to work just to survive, but if you want anything more, food that doesn't come in cubes, then you choose to work. The idea is that we could all end up being more productive if we could choose what we want to work on it could lead humanity to interesting places, instead of fighting to do just enough to survive. It is also a bit of a Utopian vision.
Larry: There's also the service economy, and by service I don't just mean McDonalds. So we had a flood in our house in July. We had workers here constantly for the last several months putting walls in and painting and doing things that cannot be done by machines.
Leo: Admittedly, part of the problem is these jobs may in fact exist, but pay so little and be so grinding and grueling that they in fact don't raise you above the poverty line. in fact, the minimum wage in the United States does not raise you above the poverty line.
Larry: But doing carpentry working Palo Alto, at least the guys that we hire, is 75 dollars an hour, which if you didn't live in Palo Alto is a pretty good wage. The problem is to live in this area is so hard. What I'm saying is there are skill jobs out there. In fact, I think this home automation thing that we're in right now requires skilled people to know what to buy, how to install it, how to configure it, and I do think there are service jobs that are going to be emerging the next few years. They may not last forever. But there will be some opportunities for people, and many of these jobs do not require a college education.
Leo: Here is from this Atlantic article this last year. The most common occupations in the US are retail sales person, cashier, food and beverage server, and office clerk,. These four jobs are about 10% of the labor force 15.5 million people. Each, according to an Oxford study is highly susceptible to Automation. Admittedly, there will be people working. I'm hoping that podcast show host will not be eliminated from that. However, even if you have 10% of the labor force not working, you have to address this issue. I would submit that this is a clear future at this point. We really need to think about what does that mean?
TWiT 591: "Bro Active"
Leo: The FCC is the ultimate lame duck agency at this point. In a few weeks, January 20th, the new president will get to nominate a new Chairman of the FCC. In fact Congress has already said that to the FCC, "Don't do anything."
Stacey Higginbotham: The FCC is already—yes, they stopped, they stopped doing—
Leo: They stopped doing stuff. This must be like a leftover.
Stacey: Well, yes. This is something—I mean, Tom Wheeler is banking big on net neutrality being his—actually protecting consumers' rights, which he's done a really good job of—
Leo: He is not the dingo that we thought he was.
Stacey: He is not. So yea, this is so frustrating because this is what everyone said is going to happen when we allow zero rating. This is not a surprise to anyone.
Leo: Yea. Yea.
Stacey: And oh, look, it's happening. And AT&T and Verizon by ignoring T-Mobile and not going after the first move or the weakest one—
Leo: Because T-Mobile started this with their Binge On Program.
Stacey: They did. Binge On and zero rating for Spotify and some things which everyone's like, "Hey, free Spotify." We're like, "No."
Leo: This is why it's so hard. Zero rating is so hard because customers love it.
Leo: What they don't understand, and I feel like I'm preaching at them when I say this, is it's not good for you (laughing). You shouldn't—I know you're not paying anything for listening to Spotify but the problem is the next hot, new, exciting music service is disadvantaged. You won't listen to them because they cost you bandwidth. So in effect, you're telling John Ledger and T-Mobile, you guys get to pick who the winners are. And we don't want T-Mobile to pick who the winners are. We don't want AT&T to pick who the winners are. We want the market and consumers pick who the winners are. Did I describe that accurately?
Stacey: You were so good. I'm so glad I didn't have to do that because I would have just gone on and one.
Leo: Part of the problem is the term net neutrality is terrible.
Leo: And I wish we could come up with a better name. I keep thinking maybe net discrimination or bandwidth discrimination.
Om Malik: Network freedom.
Leo: Well it's for freedom but it's against discrimination.
Stacey: It's—yea. But discrimination, they got that, they took advantage of that word because discrimination in the FCC sense now means a lot of crazy things. But, on this story, so AT&T with DirecTV, that's their own service. So they're basically like, "Ooo! You belong to us." And that's why the FCC went after them. So with T-Mobile, T-Mobile wasn't being as egregious in doing—
Leo: Well it's worse, it's worse than AT&T, yea.
Stacey: It is way worse.
Leo: But it's not really worse because ultimately the whole problem is picking winners, whether it's you or somebody else. And we don't know what deals T-Mobile's making with these companies to get zero rated. Zero rating is, by the way, another terrible phrase. These phrases are chosen to obfuscate the problem.
Stacey: Hmm mmm. Because the people in their marketing departments are great. AT&T Sponsored Data. So, with this, I'm just so sad because AT&T, even if the FCC does go, even if the FCC had the ability to go after them, which I don't think given the people that are in Trump's transition team that's going to happen, AT&T and Verizon will fight like hell to make sure this goes through. And they fight the long game. I mean the fact that we're still talking about net neutrality, how long, Om, has it been since we've been doing net neutrality, like 2008, 2009? I mean before 2005 the term was invented.
Om Malik: I mean I think about this since day one and it's so nice to see two other people talk about stuff that you know, made my head explode.
Leo: I just signed up for the free trial of DirecTV Now and it's supposed to be a free 7-day trial, but—I wish I could show you. Maybe I've hustled through this. Oh, yea, here we go. So, this is supposed to be free and it's very confusing. Lock it in. Pay $35-dollars every month. No, wait a minute. I don't want to—should I press the continue button or no? What am I paying for? Add to plan? But I don't—it's supposed to be free. Ok, continue. Prepay, we'll hook you up. No, what? It's supposed to be free. Oh, wait a minute, this is free, prepay 3 months today. It's free, right? Credit card? I'm not giving you a—what the hell? So this is, by the way, in case you think, "Oh, no. AT&T's nice. They wouldn't screw anybody.
Stacey: No one thinks that.
Leo: I can't continue without giving them a credit card.
Stacey: So, that's pretty common on free trials.
Leo: Total due—wait a minute. Wait a minute. Total due today, $105-dollars? That's common on free trials?
Stacey: Oh, that is not. That is not.
Leo: Total due today? $105-dollars? That's—wait a minute. It's time. It's time for me to make this big and to use my Telestrator, total due today, $105-dollars, due today. That's not free.
Stacey: Scroll down. I want to see their T&C because AT&T has the best.
Leo: Oh, you are weird if you want to see that. Well, ok, all right.
Stacey: No, because that's when they're telling what you're paying for.
Leo: Compatible device and browser required. Residential customers only. Available in the US only. Excludes Puerto Rico and U.S.—
Stacey: No, ok, so the free trial part.
Leo: New subscribers only. Cancel before end of trial or it automatically renews monthly at the rate in effect at sign-up, minimum $35-dollars a month is charged to your payment method on file until you cancel. View, modify or cancel at any time at DirecTV Now. Once cancelled you can go to DirecTV, blah, blah, blah. But ok, but, but, but, but, total due today. This is not free. $105-dollars? How did it get to that?
Stacey: Yea, where did that come from?
Leo: Your 7 free days will be added to the end of your free—wait a minute. Your 7 days will be added to the end of your prepaid period. You'll be charged $105-dollars today and your regular monthly payments of $35-dollars a month will start on March 11. That's not free.
Om: That's what they count on.
Stacey: That's AT&T. I love them. There you go.
Leo: We just need your info. Give us your info. Info. I want your info. Terms and conditions. Will they ever cease to amuse? Coming up. One of the most moving moments this year from TWiT. But first a word about sheets. I know you probably don't think a lot about your bed linens. But let me tell you. I can probably even remind you. Maybe it's at a hotel, maybe it's at home when you have a freshly made bed, and you've got really nice sheets. Your tired, it's been a long day. You crawl into bed. It may be one of life's greatest pleasures. It's simple, right? Just go ah. That feels so good. I get that every single night, because I have Boll and Branch sheets. Boll and Branch sheets, I love them. They're 100% organic cotton. Sometimes sheets are very scratchy, right? Not with Boll and Branch. It's super soft, it softens over time. You just feel like you're being pillowed by these sheets. You'll feel good. Your conscience will feel good. Normally good sheets like this cost a lot of money in stores, but Boll and Branch sells direct to you, so there's no mark up. You're getting what is wholesale prices for the best luxury sheets. Instead of a thousand bucks, it's a couple hundred. And a portion of every sale goes to fight human trafficking, which i think is really great. check them out. Thousands of five star reviews, articles and Forbes the fast journal company. Even three US presidents, we won't say who, even three US presidents sleep on Boll and Branch sheets. Buying bedding is inconvenient, but they make it easy to order from home. When I say easy, this is suitable. The package that I got looked like a wedding gift. IF you wanted to give this as a wedding gift, it would be so welcome, and it comes in a beautiful box with a big satin bow, a ribbon around it. It's perfectly beautifully wrapped. By the way, free shipping. You don't pay extra for the wrapping. You can try it risk free for 30 nights. If you don't like it, send them back for a full refund. You won't want to send them back. Within thirty days I was ordering more. I want this all the time. Boll and Branch. It's like a cotton Boll. Bollandbranch.com. It's a cotton thing. Do use the promo code TWiT and you'll get fifty bucks off your first set of sheets. Bollandbranch.com, promo code TWiT. We thank them so much for their support of This Week in Tech. I hope you got everything you asked for for Christmas or Channukah, but if you didn't, this is a good gift to yourself. And anybody who happens to join you. Bollandbranch.com/twit. All right. TWiT is a lot of things. It's always fun, always thought provoking. Sometimes it's very emotional. This is a moving moment from one of our regulars, Owen JJ Stone. This was a jam packed show. I think in the last minute, we asked Owen to join us, because we were talking about race relations and things got heavy.
TWiT 570: "Judge Dredd"
Leo: I did get it. Thank you. OhDoctah. You're my favorite guy. You move out of the township, you move to Petaluma, we'll take good care of you here, all right?
Owen: I Need to move to the state that you own so I can take care of things. Here, lean in Leah. Say hi.
Leo: Happy Birthday, Leah! Happy Birthday!
Owen: He's yelling happy birthday.
Leo: Happy Birthday! Your card's in the mail.
Jeff: If you put the stamp on it.
Leo: Happy Birthday, dear. Are you happy to be 9?
Leah Stone: Thanks. Yea.
Leo: Last day as an 8-year-old. You know what that means?
Leah: No, I don't.
Leo: No, neither do I.
Jeff: Leah, how long is the birthday festival going on?
Owen: Leah, do we call the cops?
Leo: What do we call them?
Owen: We don't call them. We have a system in place where depending on what's going on she calls her mother or she calls my mother.
Leo: Wait a minute. You've trained her not to call the police?
Owen: When she's with me, yes. And that's what my last statement's going to be. I hope to live in a world where I don't have to teach my daughter to do things like that.
Leo: That's going to make me cry.
Owen: I want to live in a world where it's ok when she's with her mother to call the police, but I fear when she's with me. I've been pulled over 30 times in the last 2 years and I'm a very quote unquote friendly, speak able guy, but in the last 4 years I've had 3 cops pull guns on me where I had to de-escalate the situation because they were just out of control. And I fear that if she ever, if something happened to me and she called the cops, and she had fear in her voice, they might show up, see her—I get all the time that people think I've kidnapped a little white child so I wouldn't want a cop to show up and her be upset and think that I'm the aggressor and something go wrong. So depending on the situation, she calls her mother or she calls my mother. And then they get to make the decision whether the police are called or not. And I don't like living in that world. I don't like living in that reality. I just want everybody to be somewhat more responsible and respectable of other people's feelings. I want black people to live. I want police to live. I mean I can't say blue lives matter more than black lives but all lives matter but right now, it's a very dangerous time. And I just want people to realize that it's also a great time. I'm sitting here with Uncle Leo. You done sold my inheritance and I plan on taking over for him in the near future when he retires. And things could be positive. My daughter is beautiful. She is healthy. And she is driving me crazy. And all those are all good things for me to be happy about. So even though I'm upset, you've still got to be happy. I just want the world to be a little bit different sometime soon (laughing).
Leo: Truer words never said. Thank you, Owen.
Leo: Go from serious to silly. Apple opened its own store in San Francisco this year with trees and a garden. I don't know what happened to me, but I lost my mind. watch.
TWiT 563: "Is That an Echo in your Pants?"
Leo: Do we have the video that Kara shot? Is that around on the Tricaster? No. We sent somebody down to shoot some video of it. So this is their 15th anniversary store and they're re-doing all the Apple Stores I think are going to look like this. It has a forest, a little garden grove inside the store.
Georgia Dow: What? Why are you hateful? What do you have against trees?
Leo: It's not a store.
Georgia: What's wrong with trees?
Clayton Morris: They call it not the Genius Bar, the Genius Grove. You can go out and get some free basil.
Georgia: It's like a little tiny. I love it. I think it's a great idea. It's community.
Leo: (Laughing) free basil.
Georgia: It's community. This is a place where people can just hang out and chill. And I think that's what people are missing. People are so sick of buying things online with computers where we can actually got there and actually meet other people and hang out and relax and not to have to feel any pressure, have some cool Apple products hanging out in the background. You can check out the nice beautiful rose gold, relatively useless MacBook. And just enjoy. There'll be music. There'll be bands. There'll be artisans. You can go there and have a meeting. There'll be places where you can hang. This is an area where we can actually deal with community and you know, have Apple products in the background. I think it's brilliant marketing. And those 42' you know, glass doors, opening those up so that it becomes part of, it's no longer a store it's just an area you can walk in and forget where inside is and outside is. I think it's great marketing. That's my though on that.
Owen: Leo, Leo, Leo. You are so wrong. Captain, get off my lawn.
Leo: This is technology as a lifestyle. This is exactly what's wrong with Apple.
Owen: No, see you don't understand the way the world works. We live in a world where we're jaded by everything digital and bibbidi bopping and you tell kids, "Don't go outside." Well the trick to get them to go outside is to bring the outside to inside.
Leo: There's a grove inside the store.
Owen: There's trees and plants. Have you not been to Japan and seen Bonsai trees on the side of a room and the spirit and the essence of life and the Feng Shui? You don't know nothing about Feng Shui. I'll tell you.
Leo: I don't want Feng Shui. I want a gosh darn computer. I think they're selling a lifestyle that is bogus. It's BS.
Owen: Listen to the love in Georgia's voice.
Georgia: If we believe it, it's all that matters.
Leo: I don't believe.
Owen: All that love in Georgia's voice, you can't even fight that with your grumpy old man, get off my lawn. I'm bringing you a Bonsai tree next time I come out there.
Leo: No, I ordered a Bonsai tree. I got the floating one on Kickstarter. I'm find on Bonsais.
Georgia: Has it arrived?
Leo: Not yet. Probably will never.
Georgia: He's just grumpy about trees only because he didn't get his Bonsai yet.
Leo: I love trees. I don't want to conflate trees with commerce. Trees are trees. They should be in a forest. Go in the forest. That's fine. This is a store.
Clayton: Beyond just the aesthetic, what has changed from the experience? I mean that's the larger question.
Leo: They're not selling stuff anymore.
Leo: That's what's changed. They're trying to make it—I'm not kidding. I find this creepy. They're trying to make an Apple lifestyle. This is taking the brand too far in my opinion.
Owen: It's the trend of the world. If you go to Asia, they have cat and puppy shops where you can just walk in and literally drink coffee with somebody's cat because you want to feel things and be outside of your home.
Leo: And this is what you want? This is what you want for the world?
Clayton: This is coming from the guy who lives in Queens right now.
Owen: I wish for the hallowed days of Leo Laporte when you used to work out of a cottage and have some spirituality and ask to share the community pot. Now you've got this big industrial warehouse and you think that you're on top, mister. Well, you're wrong. Because I heard the love in Georgia's voice.
Leo: (Laughing) I'm going to put some trees in here and then you'll be visiting the TWiT Forest.
Owen: You better do it and also in your will, put your thing as your urn as a plant. So you can be planted as a tree when you die.
Leo: I love trees. I love nature.
Georgia: I think it is that you just don't want to go to a store to hang out with other people because you're done after doing all these podcasts.
Leo: It's cultish.
Georgia: You're done with people.
Leo: I'm going to put my sneakers and my white running shoes and my white track suit on and I'm going to sit there say I'm waiting to be taken up to Steve's land. It's cultish. It's weird. It's creepy. They're selling computers. They're making, they're fetishizing stuff.
Georgia: But I don't think so. I think that they're giving something back to the community where if you have a small startup you can go there and hang out and actually deal with business. If you, you know it's going to have the little tiny open Union Square thing where you can just sit there 24/7 and not buy anything, listen to music, have free Wi-Fi, drink your latte. You don't have to buy anything at all.
Leo: I think that's what they want.
Georgia: Yea, it just makes it a part of the community. It's kind of giving back whereas yea, we can say that the Echo, where your able to sit in your house and you no longer even have to leave the house for getting toilet paper.
Leo: Wait. But we have a massive homeless problem in San Francisco.
Clayton: I was just about to say something.
Leo: (Laughing) wait until the homeless people start coming in. Are they going to let them sit around? No.
Owen: They just had a problem with that out here in Philly with Philly Jesus went to an Apple Store and apparently he went down on a day where there was a new manager, somebody who didn't know what's going on. But he goes in and he charges his phone every day. He's a homeless guy who walks around dressed like Jesus, he has this big wood cross. Everybody knows him. He's harmless. But they actually had him arrested which did nothing but raise his profile and he got to speak to more people about being Philly Jesus. To your point, I know I was yelling at you. I was kind of joking. They're doing all the sell things and to make more money, yea. It's all marketing. Like I said, they're really great at marketing and invoking a feeling. Like I said if you listened to the way she was talking, she was pleasant and she was happy and it invigorated an emotion in her. That's what they do. And as far as letting homeless people in, they need to. But I highly doubt they will.
Leo: Of course they're not.
Owen: I had that incident, my own incident with Apple and—
Leo: Yea, forerunner.
Owen: Yea, in LA. So Apple is you know, they're going to have to tiptoe around that because that Philly thing got a lot of buzz out here. People were upset. Because again, it's something that the guy did every day and they actually let him go in there and charge his phone. They didn't do anything about him. I guess they have a time limit or something on how much time you can spend in the store if you're not doing something. So.
Leo: I just think this is—
Georgia: They probably don't unless they probably noticed that he didn't look the way that they were hoping that he looked. So.Leo: Well that's kind of my point which is—
Georgia: If I hung out for a full day in an Apple Store, they'd say nothing.
Leo: Yea of course not. That's my point is that you're welcome as long as you're part of the cult and you're kind of in the—but if you look like you're, you know, a little weird, bye-bye. I don't know. I just feel like it's—it's nice. It's fine.
Owen: Isn't that every store though? Isn't that any place you go into?
Leo: Yea, yea. No, it's fine.
Owen: If you don't have yourself put together they kick you out?
Owen: Or they don't want you in.
Georgia: Did you suddenly bring a tree in (laughing)?
Leo: I don't know. It's a pussy willow or something. I don't know.
Georgia: Well look at that. This place, it's already looking good.
Leo: See? Welcome to the Apple Grove.
Owen: Now we feel it. We feel it.
Georgia: But yea, I think it's great marketing. I think it's going to work well for them. I think that it's a nice idea to be able to have a store where it's not unwelcoming. And hopefully it will be welcoming to everyone. I doubt that that will be the case to that but yea, I like the idea of it just being open. You can just walk in. You don't have to worry. It's not going to be one of those stores where you feel like you go in and everyone's staring at you and you're not, you know, able to enter there and be able to just chill out. And I think it will be great. But yea, they did this for marketing for sure.
Owen: Apple doesn't do that anyway. There's people always in there playing with games and apps and stuff and they're never really trying to sell you anything or help you with anything unless you ask them because there's 42 million people just floating about. So it's already, again, it's just something else to market and say, "Oh, look at what we're doing now because you haven't come into an Apple Store in the last 3 years and our numbers are down. And we're going to launch this new thing to get you back in."
Clayton: I drop my three-year-old off at the iPad table and I just go to work.
Leo: Exactly. Exactly. It's daycare. It's daycare for the tech.
Owen: Can we do that? Can we do that as a Fox and Friends thing? Just setup some GoPros? Just drop the kid off and just see how long it takes for them to be like, "Look. The kid's been here for 4 hours. Can we get a sippy cup or something?" Yea, let's see how long they notice.
Clayton: 4 hours. I've got this much screen time.
Leo: I actually, I forgot, there is one more Google thing.
Georgia: Sorry. All the trees.
Leo: There's one more Google thing (laughing) I do want to mention is that they announced that Chromebooks are going to be running the Android Store soon.
Owen: That's amazing.
Leo: I think that's interesting. Does that excite you, Owen?
Owen: That please me to no end. Especially like if I can use Instagram on the computer instead of having to use my phone, oh happy day. I'm buying me a new laptop. ASAP.
Leo: It makes the Chromebook very interesting. And they did mention that it's selling more now. They sold last quarter more Chromebooks were sold than Apple Macintoshes.
Owen: Well they're probably selling a lot of those to schools and things like that.
Leo: They are. It's the number one computer in schools now.
Owen: Leah's school just got a whole new crop of them. And they used to have the old Dell desktop things that were horrible. And then they said, "Oh, we just bought all new Chromebooks." So everybody's got a Chromebook now. So I'm sure they're killing it in the educational market.
Clayton: Well what is the future of Chrome OS?
Leo: Well I feel like this is the future. In other words, more of the question is what's the future of Android in some ways, right? Because although I guess you still need Android for a touch device, a phone or a—actually, here's what the question is Clayton. What's the future of tablets? My wife, Lisa was asking me this. "Well are they going to still sell tablets if you can get Android apps on your Chromebook, what do you need a tablet for?"
Owen: Because you don't want a keyboard and you want the touchscreen, you want the portability. I mean having a Chromebook is cool and all but the whole reason tablets are awesome is because I don't have a keyboard attached to it. If I'm on the go I take my tablet. I don't dislodge my laptop. Even my Air. I've got an Air sitting right here too. I barely take this thing out anymore unless I'm traveling.
Georgia: You see, I'm the opposite. Now I don't use my tablet anymore because my MacBook, it's like it's thin and almost as light as a tablet but I appreciate the keyboard if I have to write a long email, tapping on glass just does not do it for me. And I hate having to carry the tablet. It's like they do have the light ones but I like having a track bag. I just want it to be able to do all of it. I want the touchscreen, the keyboard it all there and to be light and to be able to travel with it. So now I don't use my tablet at all.
Leo: Does it make a difference?
Owen: You don't have a touchscreen on your Apple, though. You don't have a touchscreen.
Georgia: I know. I'm waiting for it. I'm waiting for it.
Owen: We were so in sync today and then you had to go and ruin it.
Leo: Apple's never going to put a touchscreen on.
Leo: They don't want, they're already losing market share to the iPad. It feels like there's more greenery than there used to be here. Am I wrong?
Georgia: (Laughing) We've lost Leo. Where's Leo? It's like Jurassic Park.
Owen: Leo Laforest.
Leo: Do you feel better now, Owen? Are you feeling a little more at home in the grove?
Owen: Do you know why I feel better? Because the joy of my heart, every time Georgia giggles when they put you on screen. Of course I feel better. She's by Chewbacca mom for right now. I'm enjoying the heck out of it.
Clayton: Wait a minute. This Week in Wiccan.
Georgia: How are we able to find Leo?
Leo: Actually, speaking of the Chewbacca mom, don't you have one of those masks, Clayton? Did you get it?
Clayton: What? What?
Leo: Ah! Ah! Ah! Oh my God, that's terrifying. Can you laugh maniacally for us?
Clayton: (Chewbacca noises). It's a little too tight.
Leo: I love it. I love it.
Owen: Can you wear the mask and go driving around with it?
Leo: By the way we tried, we desperately tried to get those (laughing).
Owen: See, listen to her laugh. It's amusing.
Leo: She's like the Chewbacca mom.
Clayton: People listening at home right now.
Georgia: I was drinking water. I almost like ruined my laptop at the same time.
Clayton: Leo just removed his shirt.
Leo: Well I don't think that really explains the whole, the—
Owen: Leo has removed his shirt and is sitting in a forest.
Leo: The totality experience frankly.
Owen: He looks like, he looks like the hair shampoo. What is it? It begins with a N.
Georgia: Taking a photo. I have got to remember this moment.
Owen: What is that hair shampoo where the girl puts it on and she turns into a jungle and she's having like the time of her life?
Leo: Oh, yea, what is that? I know what you're talking about.
Clayton: Herbal Essence.
Leo: Herbal Essence. Herbal Essence.
Owen: Leo Laporte looks like he is in a Herbal Essence commercial and he is waiting for the shower scene to start. He is surrounded by flowers and trees and foliage and a microphone. He is the silver fox in the wood. He is the silver fox in the woods.
Georgia: People who just tuned in at this point, they're going to be like—
Leo: I feel like I have now, I'm channeling Jonny Ive and I really want to have kind of a TWiT glade, a TWiT forest. And by the way, you're laughing but the entire studio audience has also disrobed.
Owen: Now who's running a foliage cult? Every Sunday, they get naked with you. You've got plants all around. Welcome to the new TWiT Cult.
Georgia: This is the new TWiT.
Leo: It's the new TWiT Cult.
Georgia: TWiT 2.0.
Leo: So we're going to take a break.
Owen: Is this a Snapchat moment? We're living in Snapchat. We are living in Snapchat.
Owen: I'm trying, I just need Clayton to wear the mask and ride around the hood with me and see if we can get a DWC show going on. Two brothers in the hood.
Leo: (Laughing) two brothers in the hood.
Leo: By the way, that is both better and worse with video. So if you're listening (laughing), this might be one you want to download and watch. Or maybe not actually come to think of it. Let's talk about Mars. Elon Musk is taking us there. I wasn't here for this episode, but Becky Worley, Christina Warren, Owen J. J. Stone and Jason Hiner were.
Becky Worley: Elon Musk has a plan for our future. Colonizing Mars at the International Astronautical conference in Mexico. He gave a talk, it was called making humans a multi-planetary species, and this is his idea for getting to Mars. Space X, I'm going to break down the specifics, because that's basically what Elon did. It was incredible. Whenever he does this, when he gets into the nitty gritty of talking about his insane plans, it boggles my mind at how bored he sounds talking about these amazing ideas and seemingly impossible to execute concepts. I will try not to go at it with the same sense of boredom, but let me try to break this down for you. SpaceX would use reusable BFRs, these are Big bleep rockets, along with BFS, which are big bleep spaceship, rockets capable of 680,000 pounds of thrust, the ship could carry a hundred tons of cargo. Once in orbit it would be refueled, then it takes off for Mars. He really got down to the nitty gritty in terms of cost. He said right now it would cost 10 billion dollars per person to send someone to Mars. His goal is to scale it down, targeting 200,000 per person, eventually 100,000. He's all about re-useable parts. Trips take a hundred people at a time. The spaceship would have movie rooms, cafeterias, entertainment options. He said it would be a really fun place that's his quote, fun place. I don't know how long you'd have to be on that ship that is terrifying. He's targeting 2022 for these flights. Public and private organizations are going to help fund the missions and a million humans could live on Mars by the 2060's. Are you guys in? Are you going?
Owen: Could I break in on this report real quick? This is my buddy Tony, say hi to people, Tony.
Tony: Hi, how's it going?
Owen: What's your college degree?
Tony: I have a bachelor's degree in marine science with a concentration in marine biology.
Owen: What's your current job right now?
Tony: Jet mechanic.
Owen: For who?
Tony: United States Air Force.
Owen: So Tony is a really smart guy. Tony, are we going to Mars? How long would it take us to get to Mars?
Becky: Tony's face expresses skepticism for those of you listening.
Owen: How long. Give me an estimated time period.
Tony: A long time.
Owen: 50,000? 20,000? Like 100,000?
Tony: More than ten years.
Owen: More than 10?
Owen: OK. That's all I need.
Becky: The big brain sitting next to you, Ohdoctah, says this is total malarkey.
Owen: We're not going to Mars. I'm going to let you guys talk. Let me just say this. I love Elon Musk, I love the sun, I love the solar, I love hyper loop. But for Pete's sake, could you use that big brain and all this money you want to put into a desert rock planet that doesn't sustain life, and fix the planet we got right now? Can we get ten billion dollars to clean up the homeless and give them a job or something? Instead of per person to put them on a planet that can't sustain life? Can we do that, Elon? I love you so much, I hate the way you manipulate the stock market and my heart, but shut up about Mars. We ain't going to Mars, we ain't going to Mars, we ain't going to Mars. Now go ahead and talk about it.
Christina Warren: That's it for TWiT! Thanks for joining us.
Owen: I love the man so much. Fix this earth we got, Elon. Jason Calacanis is going to be the first person to Mars. He ain't no engineer, he ain't no mechanic, he can't fix nothing. What's he going to do? Complain about the weather? We need grunt workers. It's not going to happen, bro.
Jason: The same day that Elon announced this, when I was at this festival last week, which is an innovation event. It's like Ted. This event cost 100 200 bucks. It's the same kind of people. The day that Elon was talking his big ideas about mars, somebody there... one of the candidates for Mars 1... there's this nonprofit organization called Mars one. They do a lot of work with international based organization, work with Nasa. They've got this down to a hundred candidates. It's an MIT systems analyst named Yari Golden, she was at the idea festival talking about the fact, it was that morning and Elon made his presentation that afternoon. I knew more about Mars by the time he did it. Mars one is where they're sending scientists who can go study it. What they found is that we've sent all of these.. it's not space tourism. They're trying to get some scientists to go up there and do the same thing. If we trash this planet, what are we going to do? We've reached the limits, what Mars One posits is that we've reached the limits with what we can do with robots, we actually have to send some people there. But sending them and getting them back is the hard thing so they want to take a group of 24 people interdisciplinary, send them to Mars, create this colony with these scientists. Because of that, they're working on this laser based communication. Right now it takes anywhere from several minutes to almost an hour to get communication from Mars to Earth. This laser based satellite communication basically will send it a lot faster. The idea is that the stuff she's working on at MIT, with the idea that she's going to be one of the candidates on this, but if not, she can develop technology that's going to help. By the way, this technology to get at your point, Ohdoctah, this technology could actually help us here on Earth, like a lot of space technology. A lot of stuff that went into the space program did interesting things for the space program, but the kind of advances they gave to the tech Industry is huge. That's the bigger benefit to a lot of this stuff. For Elon's case, he's the show man, he's the PT Barnum of the Mars story, but there are other people working on this. It's important not to forget that. Their goal is to send someone to Mars by 2027 and they are working toward that. They narrowed down their hundred candidates. Next year in 2017 they are going to name the 24 candidates and then work on working towards this for over the next decade.
Becky: Christina, are you buying it?
Christina: No. I think eventually yeah. Because there is real science happening and potential for space exploration, we'll get there. Not to discount Elon because what he's doing is important in that it gets people paying attention. It's exciting, but to Jason's point, he's a PT Barnum sort of guy, and making these proclamations like 2022, that's so close. Come on now. Let's be real. I also appreciate the way he phrased it. You could die on this mission, so please pay me 500 thousand dollars to go on this Mission where you might die. I'm not willing to go yet until I know someone could take over my company. This is basically a suicide mission. I'm intrigued by what space exploration could do but I'm bothered by, even though fundamentally some of the things Elon Musk wants to do have broader technology and scientific pursuits at their core, so much of it does seem to be about space tourism, which to me is bothersome. The last thing that I want and the way it's being sold now, it's being sold as the modern era of climbing Mount Everest, where it's just rich people who pay a hundred thousand dollars and climb a mountain because they can. This is going to be a thing where people who are rich enough to go to Mars will go versus people who are actually looking at discovering other systems and what's habitable and what's not and technologies that might have pursuits other places. I don't know. The whole thing is like... I'm also... his whole description of Mars, all I can think about is the movie Wall E and be like yeah. OK. We're all going to be on this other planet in stasis, not moving around, just eating and watching TV.
Becky: The chatroom says the best place on Mars is worse than the worst place on Earth. Elon described it... Not only is the trip there on this massive trip going to be "fun," because there will be movie theaters. They have movie theaters on my plane to New York that I take every couple of weeks. Anyways. He also said it would be fun on Mars because the gravity is low. One thing that struck me, I feel like a dumby, it struck me in his talk when we think about all the space exploration and all the technology innovations that came out of that when we did this through NASA and the moonshot and how those spawned so many businesses and so much entrepreneurship and innovation as those engineers spun out the government programs and started their own companies, but now it's privatized from the start here with Elon. So you've got.. he was talking about on the ship once it's launched and en route to Mars that the solar rays will deploy. Then of course it will be storing energy into batteries which will be part of everything he's doing with Tesla. The engines that he is going to be innovating... there's got to be a crossover with Tesla or Hyperloop and realizing that all of this innovation and privatization of innovation is going to be in one... it's a publicly traded company but in one company's auspices and they will own all of that. It dawned on me. All of these pieces fit together. His brain is really big.
Christina: I was going to say you're right. His brain is huge, but it's problematic though, isn't it? He's obviously seen all of these puzzles and how it works for him, but something like the travel to another planet should be bigger than one public company.
Owen: He is nice enough to say I know you guys are trying to make cars, here's the patent I'm going to let it go. He seems like a decent guy when he's not being insane sociopath. I'm just saying. You told me we could run the whole world on solar. We know that. But guess what? Human beings can't get together to take some land out in North Dakota, build a solar farm, and give everybody free electricity. Guess what? Hyper loop? I haven't seen it. Until you can get me free power....
Christina: Companies in chaos. Hyper loop is... the drama is fantastic.
Owen: We just going to Mars and eating cookies and dough and ice cream and watching the shift. You can't get hyper loop together, we ain't even got solar farms yet. Would you just pump the... are you living in domes? We're not going to Mars, we're not going to Mars. It sounds like a little kid that's got Play-Doh and is telling me how we're going to make a store. He's going to have millions of dollars... but dog it's Play-Doh. Trust me. I'm going to make this store out of Play-Doh and we're going to be rich, Dad. Ok, kid. Go in your room and imagine that.
Becky: I always thought of space as... I think I'm space phobic. It makes me feel like there's dystopian future that's right around the corner that is going to come crashing down on my children. This dystopian space phobic didn't want to pay attention, somehow, Elon talking about it and making it sound so boring and so doable in his delusional mind, but logical delusional. Maybe that's too contradictory to be real. Jason what do you think? Is there a logical insanity here?
Jason: Yeah. I think the thing about Elon is... Elon is in the truest sense of the word, he's a true visionary. The guy dreams in... he sits around day dreaming. He didn't have to eat. He talked about how he likes the idea of Soylent because then he can take 43 minutes a day that it takes to eat meals and get rid of that and put it in a more productive time like dreaming about Mars and solar power and all these other things. Elon sets these super aggressive goals, his companies never get there. But on the way to trying to get there, they get to things faster than other companies. Tesla is way far ahead in battery technology, they're way far ahead in electric vehicles, they're way far ahead in a lot of these things because he sets these crazy stupid aggressive goals that we're going to accomplish this massively hard thing but this time. And that's what leaders do, right? Leaders push, leaders reach, they get you to get more out of you than you thought was possible. I agree with everybody on the panel. It's not happening. Maybe Elon falls somewhere in there, it sounds very PT Barnum to me. It sounds 20 years off. I think... I can't remember... somebody said how passionate he was talking about this even compared to some of the other stuff he does where he is reasonably passionate. This is the thing that gets him up in the morning. I think like this whole Mars thing—
Jason: There's some bigger problems I wish he would spend his time focusing on, because the guy does have some serious brain power.
Owen: If you're going to dream big, look me in my face and tell me we have problems with coral reefs. If you don't know anything about the coral reefs, it effects the fishing community. The fish community impacts people on land. The food industry because they eat fishmeal, but you don't understand... you know Elon Musk... come out and tell me you're going to solve that problem in ten years and I'll strip butt naked and run through these streets... (Not that anybody wants to see it) but I'll be so happy and proud just like you told me. I understand about vision. I got a lot of vision. I got a vision of a machine I could sit in and lose weight. I'd do anything. It just melts off the fat. I can envision anything that happens. He thinks the fun stuff. He sounds like a little kid sometimes, he gets so hyped up on this stuff. He moves mountains with his words. If he told you he liked cookie dough, the stock market would triple in the next half hour after a tweet. The man's got too much power. Fix the planet first before you start going to a red desert with nothing on it. I'm not going to yell about it anymore. It just makes me really upset.
Becky: It's all inter connected. What's interesting about that, Ohdoctah, is that he never talks about political will or the moral will to do some of these things. He's only dealing with what he has under his control, and what's incredible is what he actually has.
Jason: He's growing and he's only going to keep growing.
Owen: He's ruling his kingdom with an iron fist, that's for sure.
Leo: We have had so many great people on this show. And I want to thank Becky Worley for filling in for me when I was on vacation. One of the nice things about the friends and family that TWiT has gathered around it is when I take vacation, I know we're going to have a great fill-in and Becky is one of our absolute favorites. She'll be back, I promise you.
Leo: Our show today—we're going to have some fun with, I don't want to give it all away but some more stuff coming up in just a second. But first a word from our sponsor. On New Year's Day, you're probably not planning on doing much cooking. You might be planning on relaxing. But when it's time to get back in the kitchen, you'll be very glad to see that Blue Apron box sitting there waiting for you. The problem with cooking, I love to cook. And I like to make healthy, nutritious, delicious meals for my family. But you know, at the end of a long work day, the last thing you probably want to do is plan a meal, go shopping, buy the ingredients, go home, cook them and serve it. Blue Apron takes half of that work out and makes the rest of it lots of fun. See, what you do is you go to blueapron.com, you look at their menu plan for the week. You pick some meals. Then they come to you in a refrigerated box, fresh, never frozen, even the meat and fish with a recipe card, exactly the ingredients you need to make that recipe, no more, no less. They have plans for couples. In fact if you're single it's great too because you make a dinner and you've got a lunch the next day. They also have a plan for families and those have more kid friendly ingredients. But in every case it's something delicious, something you will be amazed you made. You'll be so proud serving it. Your kids, your lovers, your friends, will go, "Wow! You can really cook." And you'll just go, "Yea." You don't have to say it's Blue Apron. Just, "Yea, I'm pretty good. I'm getting better." Blue Apron, look at the menu. Steak and green peppercorn sauce with kale and roasted potato. I hate doing these. My mouth starts watering. Cod en Papillote with freekeh, I don't know what that is and spinach. That's another thing I like about Blue Apron. I learn new ingredients all the time. And then I can go in the store and say, "Yea, I need some of that freekeh there. That was good last time." I don't know what it is even now. I haven't used it yet. I'll use it this week. Potato and artichoke quiche with romaine and orange salad. Blue Apron, my friends. Trust me, you're going to love it. But I'm going to get your first 3 meals free. That way you can really appreciate it. Go to blueapron.com/twit. First 3 meals free. Free shipping and I'm sorry, they don't deliver to Hawaii or Alaska so 99% of the continental United States and that's because they want it to come fresh, right? But check it out. I'm sure it's available in your area. The best ingredients, fresh, delicious from 150 local farms, fisheries and ranchers across the United States. And by the way, it costs less than if you did it yourself. Less work and less money. A grocery store would be about 60% more for the same food. And the reason is, Blue Apron doesn't have a store, doesn't have a warehouse, doesn't have brick and mortar. You don't have to worry about waste or spoilage. So they really can save you money. And what a meal. I think of it as cooking up some love for my family. You will too. Blueapron.com/twit. Blue Apron is a better way to cook and we thank them so much for their support all year long of This Week in Tech.
Leo: It just kept getting worse this year for Yahoo. Worse and worse and worse. Steven Levy, Georgia Dow and Steve Kovach joined me just a couple of weeks ago to talk about the latest bit of bad news for Marissa Mayer and company. Watch.
Leo: All right. Yahoo. It's just one thing after another with Yahoo, isn't it? Now they say that one—and I think it's a story just because of the number, one billion user accounts have been breached. This happened a few years ago. Remember that of course Yahoo had revealed that half a billion accounts had been breached in a separate hack. At this point, you've got to wonder, is Verizon going to go through with the deal? What happens to Yahoo next?
Steve Kovach: We had the AOL CEO Tim Armstrong who's kind of helping spearhead that deal at our conference a week and a half ago. And this was before the disclosure of the hack. And we asked him, my colleague asked him point blank, "Put a number on this. What's the percentage chance that this happens?" He wouldn't do that but he's like, "I'm cautiously optimistic that the deal's going to go through." A week later this happens. So it's either going to be a discount. You've got to think that—
Leo: Well they asked for a billion off. They already, Verizon asked for a billion off for the first hack. And actually what's really important is what did Marissa Mayer know and when did she know it? Did she hid this material information from Verizon and other suitors when they were selling the company? And there's some evidence that she did on the 2014 hack. This billion account hack happened a year earlier. So it would stretch credulity to think that Marissa Mayer did not know about this billion account hack from 2013.
Georgia: I'm just shocked that that many people still use Yahoo.
Leo: I know that was the other thing. A billion people? Really? Names, addresses, telephone numbers, dates of birth, passwords. The company says it thinks it's distinct from the 2014 hack and it says, oh and the hackers aren't in our network anymore. So they say. I don't, I don't know.
Leo: What do you think? If Verizon pulls out—maybe they'll just ask for another billion off. What happens?
Steve: There's still a lot of value in Yahoo, right, because of the Alibaba out of Japan and all that kind of stuff. I mean there's—
Leo: Well you don't get the Alibaba stake with this.
Steve: You don't get Alibaba. Yea, that's true. But there is a lot of value still tied up in there. And they do have a massive user base so I mean, and especially for what AOL wants to do with it, it makes sense.
Leo: Well we do know they have a massive user base but, (laughing) how much longer?
Steve: Yahoo.com, that's how a lot of people get their news. You want to talk about visiting a home page for getting your news, Yahoo is massive. Yea.
Leo: I used my Yahoo for years as my homepage. I'm happy to say I've grown out of it but it was my home page.
Jason: This is the big news of the week. Brace yourselves, if there's kids in the room. Here is Robert Scoble, wearing the new Snapchat spectacles.
Robert Scoble: There's multiples of this photos, by the way.
Jason: I love that the producers are so quick to get something on the screen that is absolutely abhorrent. OK. Here we go. I think e just have to put the explicit on the iTunes for this show. Let's watch the video here, and we can talk about it. As people know, four or five years ago, Snapchat bought a company that was making video sunglasses, and they-- was an Indiegogo and a Kickstarter. It was one of these like Clue G hardware projects that you figured, ah, they're never going to deliver it. I believe they did deliver a product.
Robert: They never shipped it.
Jason: They never shipped it? Because on one of the—I went to one of the pages and they said they got it.
Jason: I have pictures of the founder here.
Robert: These are the pictures of the prototypes. Is there a camera here?
Brian Alvey: Yea, there's a camera looking at you.
Jason: So there's the founder wearing them.
Robert: This was two years ago.
Jason: This was two years ago. The way this product works, if you press a button on the corner, it lights up an LED circle for ten seconds, records what you see, and deposit automatically to your Snapchat. You never have to take your phone out of your pocket, you never have to authenticate whatever it is. Critically, this is the big difference. Google glass resulted in people getting punched in the face, beat up, or many arguments and fights... 3 or 4 that were well documented. The sense I got was that she was trying to provoke people with them. She was liberally walking up to people in a bar...
Ben: She was trying to pick fights. She was picking fights with me, she was picking fights with you.
Jason: She would walk up to you and be like, "I'm recording you right now." You felt like you were being assaulted by a paparazzi. I don't think you want to go up to a bar in San Francisco and start recording people.
Ben: Spectacles are totally different, in my opinion. The price is completely different.
Jason: 130 versus 1300.
Robert: Times have changed. We have Snapchat now. It's split up into little segments, we might call them in TV land shots. Somebody is choosing who to focus the cameras on. We're on air for five or ten seconds. In Snapchat, that's what you're doing. You're capturing videos and it builds a narrative about your day. You can grab the day and store it to your phone or share it out to other places.
Jason: They solved the problem of wanting to punch the person in the face because you're recording them covertly, however it is inevitable that this will result in people putting up no snap glasses in this bar, in this club at this concert.
Brian: There was that woman who posted something on snapchat from her gym, right? The person was older, a little heavier, standing over a tub or a sink. And she's like, "I can't un-see this. You have to see this." She meant to send it to a friend, and she sent it to her followers instead.
Robert: Snapping a picture in a locker room is illegal.
Brian: Completely illegal, right?
Jason: I didn't realize that was actually a law. I just thought that was common sense.
Robert: In California it's a law.
Brian: That is why the cameras on your phone make a noise. They don't have to make a noise. But they make a noise to alert people when you're in the gym club shower. So I think they're doing this the right way. These are crazy, you can't miss them. Not at Google glass, it's also used to open web browsers that only you can see and all this other junk.
Jason: These are single function.
Brian: Single function, I'm here to do this crazy thing. And you really can't hide them in a shower somewhere.
Robert: Most people don't understand why Google glass caused these fights. It really doesn't have anything to do about the camera. Because I was at the Sahara tent at Coachella, and everybody's recording on their phones. But there were two guys in front of me, one talked to the other and said "I need to get away from the Google Glass people." I wasn't wearing it because I didn't wear it then. There were two people behind me with Google Glass on. I grabbed these two guys and said "What makes you nervous about this? You're in a place where everybody is recording so it's not about the camera." They said "It makes me feel bad." Two reasons I pulled out of them. One, there's a screen between them that they can't see and they can't re-negotiate the social contract that we have with each other. If you start playing with Facebook right now in the middle of the show, I'd slap your hand. Why are you doing that when there's something more important to pay attention to? And the second thing is they felt that the person who had them on, had information about them that they didn't have about the people who had them on.
Jason: So they had an advantage, an information advantage. I'll tell you why I don't like it because I saw a google executive get on the dance floor, and all the girls left the dance floor. And I thought that was the reason. We just sit here dancing with ten girls, and literally a Google exec comes up and is like, "Hey." Everybody runs.
Ben: They were not that fashionable. The Spectacles, if you actually look at them--
Jason: Pull this one up. This is Evan Speigel who is dating a super model... I think they're married actually. He's from LA, he's a hip dude. Look at the side. He's got the side thing here. It looks good.
Ben: So this style is in right now for teenagers 13-18. So it's part of it. I want to do one prediction with the group.
Jason: Ok, here we go. Prediction or long bet? Prediction or long bet?
Ben: Let's do a bet on sales.
Jason: Sales, total, let's see. 2017 sales. Not 2016. When did they come out?
Robert: Towards the end of the year.
Jason: By the end of the year. So 2017 was the first full year?
Ben: Start with from when they come out to the end of 2017.
Jason: Lets' give a mulligan on the first X. Let's just say 2018. 2018 total sales. everybody write it everybody write it down or type it on your computer. Wait no. Somebody set the line. That's the better way to do it. We'll set the line and then make a bet. Who wants to set the line?
Ben: Set the line is over or under.
Jason: We're going to do over under. So if you pick ten million, I pick over or under. So you set the line.
Robert: Every teenager is going to have them.
Jason: Every teenager, ok. 320 million Americans, 70-80 million of them are under the age of 18.
Robert: It's $130-dollars they have to-- let's say 20% of teenagers are going to have them in the first year.
Jason: That's 14 million.
Brian: Whatever number you come up with, I'm already saying under.
Robert: You have no clue. I've been meeting with groups of teenagers to study this, and every single teenager says they want one.
Jason: Of course.
Robert: When Thomas Hawk and I go to Coachella and shot people with big cameras, the millennials came up and danced for us. They want their picture taken. What is the Snapchat era? It's a selfie era. It's a look at me era. This is going to be very, very popular.
Jason: So the number, give us a number. We're going to bet for a pair of the glasses. Whatever the highest end pair is from Snapchat, we'll bet for glasses.
Robert: In the first 18 months basically?
Jason: No, no, no, 2018. Total sales in 2018 only, not counting the first year. The first year could be who knows?
Robert: How many GoPros sell a year?
Jason: That's a good question.
Robert: That's the over under. Will it beat GoPro? That's the over under. Because that's the real company this disrupts because the technology on this is so amazing.
Jason: I guarantee it sells more than GoPro in 2018. 100%. As a matter of fact, I will bet—
Robert: I'll take that bet, too.
Jason: Ok. I'lll say it's double. Double GoPro sales in 2018. Of traditional GoPro cameras. If GoPro comes out with one of these, I can't say that? For sure it will outsell GoPro. What do you think, Brian? Where would you set the line? The number that would be sold in 2018.
Brian: I give up. He told me I was wrong.
Jason: What do you think? Is it going to be--
Brian: I totally get the kids using them. I actually like this angle where if I was thinking about getting a GoPro, which could cost hundreds of dollars or more? I'm going to get these instead But it's only 8 or 10 seconds, it's not the whole 3 hours of my mountain climb.
Robert: GoPro sold 1.6 billion in 2015.
Robert: 1.6 billion dollars of revenue.
Jason: Revenue. So if you divide that by $400-dollars average, you're talking about 40 million of them or something like that.
Robert: That's in 2015. And there going to sell probably more.
Jason: I don't know how much they cost? Or 4 million of them actually. It will be 4 million. 4 million times 400? Yea, 4 million times 400. I would say 2018 sales, I'll set the line, at 6 million units.
Ben: Slightly under.
Robert: I think it's way over that.
Brian: I'll take it over.
Jason: You'll take the over? Great. I'm going to take the under. Two unders, two overs. We'll bet—
Ben: I hope I'm wrong. Please send me glasses.
Jason: Oh, no, even better. We'll bet whatever the most expensive hamburger in San Francisco is. This is going to be $120-dollar truffle hamburger. We'll find it.
Robert: Hardaway says kids will be over in 2018.
Jason: No. Ok, so here's the feature that is missing from this. I just wrote about this last week because I thought this was coming. The piece that is missing is it's not a DVR. And what this really should be is, it should always be recording. I know this will get people punched in the face, but really where this is going, and I think this will probably happen by 2020. And I would fund a start up to do this, because this is inevitable anyway, so I'm not going to make a judgment call on it, but if it's a DVR, and at any point in time I can press it and go back on the last hour, find that clip, right, and boom. So I don't have to press it. I say, "Wow that was a funny moment. Now I'm pressing it.
Brian: My wife says that all the time. If we could go back five seconds, that thing you said you say you didn't say? And this is like is divorce product. Not happening.
Jason: I didn't say that!
Robert: Yea, I know. Exactly.
Jason: I didn't say that.
Robert: My wife is going to wear that.
Jason: Nobody's marrying you, Ben.
Ben: I'm not going to wear it while I'm on a date, but here, here's the other thing. I think you're going to see a big load on 2017, it's going to be less, a little bit less in 2018 because it's an every other year kind of product.
Robert: The thing we're all missing is that there's some real technology in this product. There's two lenses. There's a reason for that. Because with two lenses, you can do a computer on the diff, and you can do a point cloud, a volumetric point cloud. So I can capture you in 3 dimensions for VR and AR. The algorithms that they are developing for AR, putting things on your face, are getting advanced for 2D. Wait until they do it in 3D.
Jason: It's fairly clear that this is a step, a very pragmatic step, towards augmented reality, correct? I think you all agree on that.
Robert: Screens are just too expensive.
Jason: Screens are very expensive. So if people get addicted to this, then I believe the second feature that's missing that would be pretty neat after the life DVR, I'll call it the life DVR, is over people's head putting their last snap. If your friends, who your friends in common are, in other words, when you walk through the world, or you go to a party, you don't know who you know. And you don't know who you've met before, and you may not remember their wife or husband is or their kid's names are or who they dated in your social circle. You're going to have that information floating on top of people's heads. And that would really, really, really benefit Snapchat.
Robert: They can do a lot more than-- people in the chatroom are asking what does this mean that you can do? If you have depth information, you can turn this entire world into Minecraft, for instance. All of a sudden, Ben is a Minecraft character over there and the whole world is bricks. That helps me make better content. Most people suck at content. Most people just know how to do a selfie or a little picture at Yosemite or something.
Jason: They don't know how to frame the shot. They don't know how to block the background.
Robert: They don't know how to tell a story. I read a lot of Snapchats and look at a lot of Snapchats. And I look at a lot of people's behavior on Twitter and Facebook to understand them. Most people suck at content. And this augmented reality stuff that they're doing on the face, helps you tell a better story about yourself. It makes you more interesting. It's funny to look at the feed and see Ben Parr wearing drag. You know?
Ben: Where did that come from?
Robert: That's where the filters you can choose.
Jason: Ben is wearing drag again. All right.
Leo: By the way, by the way, I ended up getting those Snapchat Spectacles. And you know what? They're actually pretty cool. I actually really like them. I've been snapping. And the funny thing is I have two kids as you know, 24 and 22, Henry and Abby. And I told Abby, she's the 24-year-old, "Hey, I just got the Snapchat Spectacles." She said, "What are those?" I said, "Snapchat." She said, "Oh yea. I'm too old for that." 24. And then my son, Henry, I thought, well I know he snaps. And I said, "Did you see this? Look at this? Look at this? Your dad's not such an old man after all." "So what's that, Dad?" "Spectacles." He had no idea. If you're a parent you know this. The last person you'll ever impress is your own kids. Never. In a bit we're going to say farewell to our old studios.
But first, I want to thank one of the biggest blessings moving to our new Eastside Studio, is our internet here. Do you know we have 10GB symmetric internet access in this studio? So fast that I can't even use it on most of my computers because the best they can do is 1GB. And it's from the best internet service provider in the country. And I say that with absolute confidence. Sonic.net. I've been a Sonic.net customer for more than a decade. I've known Dane Jasper the founder for longer than that even. I've interviewed him many times. I consider him a friend. And when we said we're moving, Dane said, "Well you really ought to have the best internet. As it just so happens, you're in a Sonic neighborhood." Man, if you're in a Sonic neighborhood, get Sonic. Sonic is an EFF 5-star rated ISP. They protect their users. They don't have bandwidth caps. They fight any attempt by the government of anybody else to get your private information. They're the good guys. And you will love the price of what you can get. Now I know it's not everywhere. But I think this is important because Sonic is showing you can do this, set a standard for internet access so that others around the country can see it and appreciate it and do it. So even if you can't get Sonic, and I'm sorry if you can't, you should be thrilled that they're around. Here's what you get. I'm embarrassed even to tell you this because it's just going to make you unhappy. Sonic's mission to bring internet freedom to all with unlimited, uncapped internet, residential or business, fiber to the premise. Not to the curb but into the premise, gigabit connectivity. It's for San Francisco, California, the north Bay Area of California, the east Bay Area but they are expanding. So go to Sonic.com S-O-N-I-C.com/twit and check. See if it's available. Because here's what you get. 15—this is one account. 15 email accounts. A gigabyte of personal storage, personal web hosting with a new domain. You get fax line service. You get a home phone connection. This is all one price. There's no add-ons. Home phone connection with unlimited local and long distance calling. And by the way, you can port your number. So if you have an existing number you can bring it right over to Sonic. Download speeds of up to 1000 megabits per second. A gigabit. Man, you have not lived until you have a gigabit (laughing). With no caps. No caps. You're ready? You want to know how much? How much would you pay? $40-dollars a month. $40-dollars a month. And then with that for absolutely free you get their stand for privacy, for friendly and local customer support, uncapped bandwidth. I love Sonic. I think you probably figured that out by now. And we thank them so much. They are providing us with our internet. This is how we get to you through Sonic's 10 gigabit fiber connection to the outside world. Join the internet revolution. Visit sonic.com/twit and receive your first month of Sonic internet and phone service free. Plus bundle it with Dish and you'll save $120-dollars on your Sonic bill. Then you get it all. Visit Sonic.com/twit. Thank you, Dane, the great team at Sonic. If you enjoy TWiT, you can thank Sonic. And even if you don't enjoy TWiT, thank Sonic for making it all possible.
Leo: Let's see here. Where did I end? Did I end with—we did the Yahoo? We did the downfall of the Mac. Oh, the Snapchat—now, I know where we are. I think you know it was 5 years ago, 2011, that we moved into the Brick House at great expense. And thanks to all of you who bought bricks to help with that expense. We spent a million and a quarter dollars to build the Brick House Studios. Little did we know that the landlord would kick us out 5 years later so they can put a brew pub in there. Well, the good news for us is we found a new spot, the Eastside Studios. We love it. Here's our farewell to the old and ringing in the new.
Leo: This I am sad to say, is the last TWiT we'll be doing in this studio. I'm glad you all, great studio audience, could be here for this. We will next week be doing the very first show. There's some question about that since apparently there's an electrical issue. We may be in the dark but we'll be doing—
Allyn Malventano: Outdoor show.
Leo: We might be outdoors.
Alex Wilhelm: Oh, that would be so awesome.
Greg Ferro: It might be with a generator.
Leo: Yea, get a generator.
Alex: A nice little hum in the background the entire time.
Leo: I will make it happen somehow. We'll find a way to make that studio work next week. So do tune in early because we'll be taking the trolley car over to the new studio at about, I'd say about 2:30, between 2:00 and 2:30 Pacific, 5:00, 5:30 Eastern, 2130 UTC. Join us for TWiT next week and every week. If you can't be here live you can always get after the fact on demand audio or video from our website twit.tv or wherever you subscribe to podcasts. Please subscribe. We want to make sure you don't miss an episode. Thank you for being here for the last time in the TWiT Brickhouse, I say, another TWiT is in the can! Bye-bye.
Narrator: There's nothing wrong with your TWiT. Do not attempt to close this browser. We are controlling the stream. We control the video. We control the audio. You are about to participate in a new online adventure. You are about to experience the sights and sounds of the new TWiT Studio. Please stand by. 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
Leo: And the champagne popped a little bit early.
Narrator: This is TWiT!
Leo: And we welcome you to the TWiT Eastside Studio, still in beautiful downtown Petaluma. Hello everybody. Our brand new studio is online and on the air and we are celebrating with champagne. Alex Lindsay, can I pour you a little glass?
Alex Lindsay: Yes, please.
Leo: We brought all in studio hosts today. All of our staff hosts. There is Jason Howell from TNT.
Jason Howell: Thank you so much.
Leo: Father Robert Ballecer. Are you allowed a little champagne once in a while?
Father Robert Ballecer, SJ: Only if I drink from both hands at the same time!
Leo: Just for a good time call Father Robert, and also Megan Morrone. I thought it would be fun to start this new episode in our life with our hosts, the people who come in every day and work so hard. Formerly at the Brickhouse Studios, now here in our new studio. It's a little rough, if you're just tuning in, I got to tell you it's-- the engineers were up all night. They've been up for several days, frankly, many of them, wiring and moving stuff over, because I was mean. I was cruel. I said "I don't want to miss any shows. I want to go as best we can, as we did the last time, from broadcasting at the Brickhouse to here at the Eastside Studios." You know what? To their credit, they made it happen. A tip of the hat! John Slanina, to Alex Gumpel, to Russell Tammany and to our engineering director, Bruce Chessam, to you, Patrick Delahanty. To all the people who work so hard behind the scenes to make this possible. Let's toast the new Brickhouse, sorry, Eastside Studios. Cheers! Cheers! All right. So if you're watching, and most of you listen, so if you're listening you probably don't notice any difference, right?. It looks the same to you.
Alex: They're like, "I don't know what you're talking about."
Leo: The dark red at the back of your eyelids, they're exactly the same. For those of you watching on video, there is a little bit of a difference. We brought the gear with us. We brought the wall with us. We brought the thing behind us. We have a new table. This table they promised me is impervious to any kind of abuse that we might give it.
Alex: I find that to be optimistic.
Jason: Except that you have all of the audio controls for all of our microphones right underneath where you're sitting.
Alex: Just what you wanted.
Jason: Be careful.
Leo: Probably not their permanent place.
Jason: No, I doubt it.
Leo: I also should thank, if I want to go home tonight, my wife, Lisa Laporte, our CEO, the person who really made this all happen, who was the project director. You should get some champagne too. Woo (applause). Without Lisa, we couldn't pay the bills, we wouldn't have this beautiful studio. She found it for us, she managed the build out. And thank you, Lisa, for doing such a great job. Thank you to everybody here in studio. We've got a huge studio audience today. Some familiar faces, some new faces. Welcome to all of you to Petaluma. What do you think? You like it?
Leo: Yeah. We survived. I don't think we lost anybody in the process.
Leo: Hey, this has been a lot of fun but I think we've got a party to go to. I am really thrilled with how this worked. Thank you so much to our team. They stayed up all night wiring and getting this all working and they did a fabulous job. We really appreciate it. Thanks to my team here at the table, the greatest Megan Morrone, it's such a thrill to be able to continue to work with you after all this time and keep making great stuff. We'll see you tomorrow for iOS Today and of course Monday through Friday for TNT. Father Robert Ballecer, the Digital Jesuit. He's on loan from God but we're glad to have him and I don't know, if God ever wants you back.
Fr. Robert: I'm on a mission from God.
Leo: We're on a mission from God (laughing). This Week in Enterprise Tech, Know How. Am I missing anything?
Fr. Robert: Just the live events.
Leo: And great job by the way at IDF last week.
Fr. Robert: That was fun.
Leo: At DEFCON. Where are you going next? What's the next live event? Are you going to IFA?
Fr. Robert: We're going to Berlin. TWiT will be at IFA covering three days of the show.
Leo: That's exciting. How soon is that?
Fr. Robert: That's what? In a week and a half.
Leo: Wow. And you're taking Bryan Burnett?
Fr. Robert: Bryan Burnett and Colleen.
Leo: Bryan Burnett was going to be on this table. He's also one of our hosts. But he very kindly agreed to bow out because this—apparently when they designed the table, they said, "Leo, what's the most number of people you would ever want to have on this show?" And I said, "We would never want more than 5 people on this show." And of course the very first show we do here, I wanted to have 6 people. John said, "You said 5." So Bryan, thank you. We love you, Bryan. We'll get you on a TWiT real soon. Thanks also to Alex Lindsay. Appreciate the 360 degree. That's awesome.
Jason: It's a wonderful gift. Thank you.
Fr. Robert: (laughing).
Leo: Yea I hope people are watching.
Alex: (Laughing) No problem.
Leo: It's going to be on YouTube permanently, right, so people can go back and look at it.
Alex: Yea, and then we'll also take some of the footage and I don't know if I'll do the whole show but we'll do an example that's in 4K stereo. And that still takes a little time.
Leo: But people who were watching it were thrilled. It was fun for them to take a look around and see it. So we'll do something with the 360.
Alex: We're still figuring it out. So a lot of it is we just like to figure out, put it in places and seeing what happens. You know, like—
Leo: Yea. It's really interesting. And of course my good friend Jason Howell. Always a pleasure to have you. The host of TNT and All About Android. Thanks to all the people who came out today. It's been really great. Thanks to all of you at home who put up with the disruption. I hope it hasn't been too bad. We plan on continuing all of our shows from our new Eastside Studios. You can come and watch us. Email email@example.com. Watch live 3:00 PM Pacific, 6:00 PM Eastern, 2200 UTC every Sunday afternoon or get your show on demand. Audio and video of all of our shows available at our website twit.tv or wherever you get your podcasts. Subscribe, make sure you get every single episode. I'm Leo Laporte. Thanks for joining us. Another TWiT—I'll say it one more time—is in the can. Yea. Thank you. Thank you!
Leo: Incidentally, just so you know, the new studio, the rent's half as much. The power bill is half as much. We get, we have all the set. We lost one set which we never used anyway, the sky set. This set's the same. My office is actually better. And the staff is happier because in the old set they used to have to be quiet when we were on the air. Now they can talk and be loud down the hall. So, anyway, we're in the Brickhouse now. And thanks for everybody—the bricks, by the way, came with us from the old studio. And we still haven't figured out where we're going to put them but I think we're going to put them on the wall outside. We still have an open studio that we invite you to come by and visit. You can visit your brick. You can visit the studio. Just email firstname.lastname@example.org.
All right, let's wrap things up now with Kurt Wagner of Recode, Jason Snell of Six Colors and my old friend, we knew her as Cali Lewis, Luria Petrucci with a great discussion of live video.
Leo: I'm intrigued by this Facebook live thing. I think we're going to talk a lot about video today. Facebook launched, again I don't know if this is only on my app, so you can confirm this. My App has changed a lot. This is the Facebook app. You'll like this, Luria, now in addition to Newsfeed and People, there's a new video button that if I touch that it shows video. Facebook is all in. Look at that. You're right there.
Luria Petrucci: I was doing one earlier this morning. How about that?
Leo: Facebook is all in on video. The point where they're surfacing it as an equal to the Newsfeed.
Luria: Yea, well, Mark Zuckerberg came out recently and said at the F8 conference how important live video is to them. And they are freaking killing it in the livestreaming space. Leo, you've been doing live streaming for years. You do it kind of on a more--
Leo: I'm going to buy a full page ad in the New York Times that says, "Welcome Facebook. Seriously"
Luria: With mobile live streaming, they're doing a whole lot in that space, so we wanedt to make sure that we were in that and killing it in that space as well, so we actually, we figured out how to use livestream HD 550 Studio Box.
Leo: So that's my question because I know how to do this, because, you know, it has a go live button right here and I can just go live from my phone. That's actually interesting because that's also been around in this but it was a little harder to find if you wanted to post to Facebook you'd have to tap what's on your mind and you'd scroll down and then you'd see the Go Live. In fact for a while I didn't even think this was in the Facebook for Android version.
Luria: That was released a few days ago.
Leo: But now they've really because of this video button...And so everybody has this video button now? You have it, Jason?
Luria: It's not on iOS yet.
Kurt Wagner: No. They're rolling it out I believe. I think they announced it a few weeks ago, right before F8, so probably a slow roll out.
Leo: Now tell me, Kurt if you have this because on the bottom of my Facebook, this is new too, I have "Categories." So I have Newsfeed but I also have World and US News, Funny. There's a whole bunch of subject matter and I can even turn it on or off with the settings button. I think I must be in some sort of beta test of this. Sorry it's so bright, I should turn my screen brightness down.
Kurt: I think you're getting not necessarily something that's totally, totally new. I know that people have written about that a few months ago. But at the same time, I don't have that. A lot of people have not had it so I do think that you're one of the lucky few. They somehow picked you.
Leo: I don't know if I feel so lucky.
Kurt: To test all of this.
Leo: It's interesting, because what it really tells me, both this scroll bar at the bottom and the new video category at the top, is that Facebook wants to be a media company, not a social network. Right, Kurt? Is that fair to say?
Kurt: I think they want to do a lot of stuff. If you were at F8 you could see that, ultimately, the one thing I will give Facebook is that they stay true to that mission which is about connecting people and it sounds a little corny, it sounds a little cliché, but everything they do, right, I mean the fact that they're trying to set up Wi-Fi enabled cities, they're going to test something in San Jose, California around that. The fact that they have Internet beaming drones, it's all about getting people onto the Internet. And therefore connecting them with the different apps they have. I think the way they keep you coming back is through the media and entertainment part of it, right? Because I'm only going to log onto Facebook if I'm exchanging a message or if I have a comment on something that I posted, but the reason I post the app every single day even if I don't have those things happening is because there's great videos and there's great stories and all these other things that I read. I don't know if they would describe themselves as a media company, but they've married media and communication in a way that no one else has done. Snapchat is trying to do it, but that's about it.
Luria: I'll add onto that, Kurt. Those are very good points. Because of their add platform and how prominent that is and how much money they make off it, that's a big deal for them. They have to keep that attention coming back over and over and over in order to make sure that people continue to have effectiveness with those ads. And of course they're putting so much effort into people who use that, you almost can't necessarily be effective if you don't use it, which is kind of a negative. But if you have high engagement you can kind of get over that. Somebody in the chatroom, I'm sorry, I missed your name, a minute ago who said they're focusing on celebrities. And they always start with celebrities. Then they always kind of roll it out to the masses.
Leo: Facebook Live is for everybody now. It's not just for less--
Kurt: But they're paying celebrities and they're paying media partners too. That's something that as far as I know that Twitter and Periscope have never been willing to do. And I think you're going to assume certain things. Facebook is now paying for this, eventually they're going to want to pull that back and figure out another way because you can't afford to pay people for content forever. But at the same time, you look at all the people who are broadcasting on Facebook live in the last three months, I mean it wasn't even a thing basically. We didn't talk about this at the turn of the year, January 1st. Now every single publisher and every single media property around is going live on a regular basis. So it's working, the problem is can they transition from we've been paying you all along to we want you to do this because you want to do it not because we're giving you money. And so they're going to have to figure out a way to monetize it in a way that keeps that incentive high.
Leo: Facebook's not paying you, Callie, right? This is a platform for you.
Leo: But I wonder, do you worry about going all in as you have on Facebook? Because it's not, I mean it's not your platform.
Luria: That's a valid point. Right. Exactly. You never want to go all in on somebody else's platform.
Leo: It's just risky.
Luria: It is risky. I mean you can if you have a strategy behind you to get people onto your own platform, right? So and that's the way we use it.
Leo: So you're using it as a way to promote what you're doing elsewhere.
Luria: Not fully. I mean yes. So we have that strategy in place and we always drive traffic to our own properties. From a business perspective, you have to think about that kind of thing. From a content perspective, you don't get our content live unless you are there live on Facebook. We do release that content later.
Leo: It stays on Facebook, right? I mean people can now see it. If you're in my feed, I missed the first show but I can see it because it's in my feed. Jason, would you? You're a content creator as much as anybody. Would you consider creating a Facebook specific show live on Facebook?
Jason: I think you have to consider the power of Facebook and its ability to reach an audience. But at the same time, I also think a lot of video producers are already dealing with a major platform that is taking up a lot of their oxygen, which is YouTube.
Leo: But it's different. You create a show and put it on YouTube. YouTube is a distribution medium for you. Facebook, this is why I might disagree with you, Kurt. I think Facebook does want to be a media company. I understand that their business is broader than that, but when you see them paying people, I think they want to, they want to be, they want to be the place you go for information, for entertainment, for everything.
Jason: They want to be the platform for internet content for all their users.
Leo: And in fact we know most people now get their news on Facebook. Don't you think maybe there's some-- you said a couple things that were provocative I thought, Kurt. One is that Facebook can't keep paying them. Why not?
Kurt: I just don't think that it's sustainable.
Leo: They've got lots of money, don't they?
Kurt: Sure, I guess perhaps sustainable is not the—you're right. They could continue to pay. I don't think it's good business. So I think what they're going to be inspired to do or driven to do is say, "OK. Now that you've gotten on the platform, you're comfortable with how this works, you've seen the audience that we can drive because we're Facebook." And we should talk about the algorithm too, because that's a whole other thing that I think Facebook has. YouTube does some of that, but this is Facebook's bread and butter, right, is that they can basically show you what they want to show you. So, let's set that aside for a second. You get these publishers comfortable going live on Facebook and then you say, "All right. How can we both make money here so we're not losing money on this content project if you will?" And so--
Luria: They've already said they're going to pay producers for that content. But it's not rolled out yet.
Kurt: Right, but that's what they're doing now but I think--
Luria: I mean the revenue split for all users as opposed to just paying celebrities. You know what I mean?
Leo: But revenue split's different. So we're going to put-- that's what YouTube does. We're going to put ads on it and you get some of that money and we'll get the rest of it.
Kurt: I think that's what Facebook will ultimately end up doing.
Leo: That's what they want to do, too. Ok, so that might be the distinction between a media company and a social media company. Because if you're CBS you pay people to make content to put on CBS that you can put ads around. CBS can't go to Louis C.K. and say "We'll do a rev share. We'll put ads on there and give you 5%." That's not how it works. Is it a media company if you do that? Is YouTube a media company? I don't know.
Kurt: We may be splitting hairs a little bit or at least I know identifying how confusing this whole thing is. But I think the slight or subtle difference that think about is traditionally Facebook has preached that it's a platform, right? It's not the one creating any of this. Yes, itt may be at this point even paying CNN, but it is not coming out and saying "We're going to create a new show."
Leo: They don't want to be Netflix. They don't want to create originals.
Kurt: I think they want to host as much great content as they can, because that's where they can sell advertising. but I don't think they want to be seen as, even though we all, again, the algorithm, they choose what we see. They don't want us to think they choose what we see. They want us to think that everything in our newsfeed is there because it's tailored towards us and there's an almighty algorithm that picks it for us. But Facebook is in control of all that. And it's very easy to forget that they have essentially a say in what succeeds and what fails on Facebook. And right now they want live video to succeed and that's why it's doing so well.
Leo: Well, wow, that was a lot! We had a lot of fun this year. And we are going to have even more fun in 2017. I want to thank you all so much! TWiT's the first show we started doing in 2005. We are entering our 12th year this year. And with more viewers, more listeners, your support has been fantastic. Every year it's been growing. And I'm just very grateful personally and I think I can speak on behalf of our team which is also growing quite a bit. When I started TWiT it was just me. Now it's about 25 people who work here. And we couldn't do it without you and your support and your listening and your support of our advertisers so thank you very much. I hope you've enjoyed this year, or last year I guess now it is, isn't it? I hope you enjoy the new 2017. I promise you lots of great shows all over the network and right here every Sunday afternoon, 3:00 PM Pacific, 6:00 PM Eastern Time, 2300 UTC for This Week in Tech. We'll have a brand new show for you January 8th. I hope you'll stop by and say hi, one week from today. Thanks for being here and now I guess I have to say it for the 595th time, 6? Good because five-th makes no sense. For the 596th time, another TWiT is in the can. Happy new Year! We'll see you soon.